Key Economic Announcements for Week 1 - 2nd to 5th January 2024

With 2023 now behind us, we are now looking ahead at the high impact economic announcements which we believe will have the biggest impact on currency movements for January. There is a busy schedule with around 60 high impact announcements set for this month, which we anticipate there will be volatility in the FX market as the market makers will try to predict and use this data to evaluate the key global economies' economic positions as we head into Q1.

This weeks high-importance announcements will potentially set the tone for currency movements on the data released.

Key Announcements

Week 1 - 2/1/24 to 5/1/24

02/01/2024 01:45 Caixin Manufacturing PMI HIGH CNY

02/01/2024 12:00 BoE MPC Vote Rate Hike HIGH GBP

02/01/2024 12:00 BoE Interest Rate Decision HIGH GBP

02/01/2024 12:00 BoE MPC Vote Rate Cut HIGH GBP

02/01/2024 12:00 BoE Asset Purchase Facility HIGH GBP

02/01/2024 12:00 Monetary Policy Report HIGH GBP

02/01/2024 12:00 BoE Monetary Policy Report HIGH GBP

02/01/2024 12:00 BoE MPC Vote Rate Unchanged HIGH GBP

02/01/2024 12:00 BoE Minutes HIGH GBP

02/01/2024 12:30 BoE's Governor Bailey speech HIGH GBP

02/01/2024 15:00 ISM Manufacturing PMI HIGH USD

03/01/2024 01:45 Caixin Manufacturing PMI HIGH CNY

03/01/2024 07:00 Retail Sales (YoY) HIGH EUR

03/01/2024 10:00 Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) HIGH EUR

03/01/2024 10:00 Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) HIGH EUR

03/01/2024 10:00 Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM)HIGH EUR

03/01/2024 10:00 Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) HIGH EUR

03/01/2024 15:00 ISM Manufacturing PMI HIGH USD

04/01/2024 01:45 Caixin Manufacturing PMI HIGH CNY

04/01/2024 14:00 ISM Manufacturing PMI HIGH USD

05/01/2024 01:45 Caixin Manufacturing PMI HIGH CNY

05/01/2024 06:00 Retail Sales (YoY) HIGH EUR

05/01/2024 12:15 ADP Employment Change HIGH USD

05/01/2024 14:00 ISM Manufacturing PMI HIGH USD

05/01/2024 18:00 Fed Monetary Policy Statement HIGH USD

05/01/2024 18:00 Fed Interest Rate Decision HIGH USD

05/01/2024 18:30 FOMC Press Conference HIGH USD

05/01/2024 22:45 Unemployment Rate HIGH NZD

05/01/2024 22:45 Employment Change HIGH NZD

GBP/EUR

GBP EUR has seen a pull back from the December high of 1.17 and dropped to 1.1472 there has been a slight recovery for GBP currently trading around 1.1545. We anticipate that the BOE will keep interest rates at 5.25% which will potentially cause volatility for GBPEUR as the market makers will want to see interest rates come down, however with inflation still above the desired 2.2% we don't expect to see interest rates to fall until inflation is in line with the UK's fiscal policy on inflation. This will cause some frustration to businesses as the cost of borrowing is high and could stifle growth plans.

GBP USD

We have seen a 3.6% increase in GBP against USD through Q4 with GBP moving from 1.2264 to 1.2719 with GBP gaining % in December against USD.

There is anticipation that the FED will start to reduce interest rates by 0.25% in March however, inflation will need to be continuing to fall for this to happen.

Our Thoughts

Having the right systems and processes in place can help manage currency risk.

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