GBP/USD Overview

The first 3 quarters of the year have been relatively volatile in the foreign exchange market.

For GBP/ USD we have seen a10.2% variance in price;

• the year low of 1.18117

• a yearly high of 1.31479

As we head towards Q4 we discuss our views and what we anticipate to see from GBP/USD.

Dates for the Diary

September is a full month for the economic calendar here are key events that will potentially have the biggest impact on price action for GBP/USD currency pair.

Start Name Impact Currency

12/09/2023 06:00 Claimant Count Change HIGH GBP

12/09/2023 06:00 Employment Change HIGH GBP

12/09/2023 06:00 ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) HIGH GBP

13/09/2023 12:30 Consumer Price Index (MoM) HIGH USD

13/09/2023 12:30 Consumer Price Index (YoY) HIGH USD

13/09/2023 12:30 Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM) HIGH USD

13/09/2023 12:30 Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY) HIGH USD

14/09/2023 12:15 ECB Monetary Policy Decision Statement HIGH EUR

14/09/2023 12:15 ECB Rate On Deposit Facility HIGH EUR

14/09/2023 12:15 ECB Rate On Main Refinancing Operations HIGH EUR

14/09/2023 12:30 Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY) HIGH USD

14/09/2023 12:30 Retail Sales (MoM) HIGH USD

14/09/2023 12:30 Retail Sales Control Group HIGH USD

14/09/2023 12:45 ECB Press Conference HIGH EUR

15/09/2023 14:00 Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index HIGH USD

20/09/2023 06:00 Consumer Price Index (MoM) HIGH GBP

20/09/2023 06:00 Consumer Price Index (YoY) HIGH GBP

20/09/2023 06:00 Core Consumer Price Index (YoY) HIGH GBP

20/09/2023 18:00 Fed Interest Rate Decision HIGH USD

20/09/2023 18:00 Fed's Monetary Policy Statement HIGH USD

20/09/2023 18:00 FOMC Economic Projections HIGH USD

20/09/2023 18:00 Interest Rate Projections - 1st year HIGH USD

09/20/2023 18:00 Interest Rate Projections - 2nd year HIGH USD

20/09/2023 18:00 Interest Rate Projections - 3rd year HIGH USD

20/09/2023 18:00 Interest Rate Projections - Current HIGH USD

20/09/2023 18:00 Interest Rate Projections - Longer HIGH USD

20/09/2023 18:30 FOMC Press Conference HIGH USD

21/09/2023 11:00 Bank of England Minutes HIGH GBP

21/09/2023 11:00 BoE Asset Purchase Facility HIGH GBP

21/09/2023 11:00 BoE Interest Rate Decision HIGH GBP

21/09/2023 11:00 BoE MPC Vote Rate Cut HIGH GBP

21/09/2023 11:00 BoE MPC Vote Rate Hike HIGH GBP

21/09/2023 11:00 BoE MPC Vote Rate Unchanged HIGH GBP

21/09/2023 11:00 Monetary Policy Summary HIGH GBP

22/09/2023 06:00 Retail Sales (MoM) HIGH GBP

22/09/2023 08:00 HCOB Composite PMI HIGH EUR

22/09/2023 08:00 HCOB Manufacturing PMI HIGH EUR

22/09/2023 08:00 HCOB Services PMI HIGH EUR

22/09/2023 08:30 S&P Global/CIPS Composite PMI HIGH GBP

22/09/2023 08:30 S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI HIGH GBP

22/09/2023 08:30 S&P Global/CIPS Services PMI HIGH GBP

22/09/2023 13:45 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI HIGH USD

22/09/2023 13:45 S&P Global Services PMI HIGH USD

28/09/2023 12:30 Gross Domestic Product Annualized HIGH USD

29/09/2023 06:00 Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) HIGH GBP

29/09/2023 06:00 Gross Domestic Product (YoY) HIGH GBP

29/09/2023 09:00 Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM)HIGH EUR

29/09/2023 09:00 Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) HIGH EUR

29/09/2023 09:00 Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) HIGH EUR

29/09/2023 09:00 Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) HIGH EUR

29/09/2023 12:30 Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - HIGH USD

Price Index (MoM)

29/09/2023 12:30 Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - HIGH USD ` Price Index (YoY)

Data released from these announcements is where we see price action have its biggest movements through September.

Technical Analysis

This price action chart gives us an indication of the current trend. This can help us make informed decisions when it comes to making trades for GBP to USD and Visa versa.

At the beginning of Q3 GBP/USD was at 1.26.

This had a positive uptrend through July to 1.3114 which was also the market high of the year so far.

From this point we saw the price fall to 1.279. This acted as a point of resistance. It was tested multiple times as prices rose to this level, however was rejected and price dropped to 1.255. This is what we see as a line of support.

As we move into September the chart indicates a clear downward trend and has now broken the line of support at 1.25 , with this level of support being broken the next level of support is 1.23223 could be a key area which will either see a rebound back towards 1.25 but will now potentially act as a level of resistance.

If market data is positive for GBP we may see a breakout from this downward trend, however, it would need to breakout of the green trend line to give any indication of a trend reversal if GBP fails to break out of this downward trend bouncing off the green trend line it would not be surprising to see price continue to fall towards the next level of support; 1.22.

If the price can break through this line of resistance we might see price head back towards 1.30. This could then become a new line of support and may confirm a reversal in the trend as we move into Q4.

Our Thoughts

Currency fluctuations can have a big impact on your profit margins.

Over Q3 we have seen a 4.6% variance in price, the timing of your USD purchases could have an overall impact on your bottom line.

Having the right systems and processes in place can help manage currency risk.

At PathFinder FX we are offering a complimentary Foreign Exchange Audit to review your business's processes, strategies and systems. This will ensure you are getting the most competitive rates, service and fintech solutions to optimise your foreign currency exposure.

Book your complimentary audit, click the image below.