February's Foreign Trade Calendar

Change is the only constant in the fast-moving world of foreign trade and international markets.

Whether you’re a trader or a small business owner, it’s important to stay ahead of these complex financial markets to protect and grow your brand or business. This forex calendar will help inform those important decisions by providing you with a week-by-week look at the events and factors that could have an impact on the market.

1 February

December’s EU manufacturing PMI of 47.8 was its highest in three months, with improving supply conditions and cooling inflation. UK manufacturing PMI fared worse, falling to a 31-month low of 45.3. Output, new orders, employment and stocks of purchases all fell at accelerated rates, while vendor delivery times lengthened. December’s US manufacturing PMI of 48.4 was down from 49 in November, as companies slowed their output.

In December, the Federal Open Market Committee delivered a 50 basis point hike to interest rates, its seventh hike of 2022. This took the target range for the federal funds rate to 4.25-4.5%, the highest level in 15 years.

2 February

In December, the European Central Bank hiked interest rates by 50 basis points, taking its benchmark rate to 2.0%. Some members of the Governing Council favoured another 75 basis point hike, but there were concerns a larger interest rate rise could heighten financial stability risks.

The Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee voted 6-3 to hike interest rates by 50 basis points in December, taking the bank rate to 3.5%. Of the dissenting voices, two voted for no change, while another voted for a 75 basis point hike. The majority of the Committee judged that further hikes might be required for a sustainable return of inflation to target.

In the week ending 14 January, US initial jobless claims were 190,000, a decrease of 15,000 from the previous week. The 4-week moving average was 206,000, a decrease of 21,250 on this figure from 10 December.

3 February

December’s EU services PMI rose to 49.9 from 48.5. While technically a decline, it was the softest decrease in activity since August. December’s UK services PMI was similar, delivering a 49.9 reading, up from November’s 48.8. Despite being the best reading since September, cost of living pressures and high inflation continue to curb consumption. US services PMI in December fell to 49.6 from 56.5 in November, as new orders, employment and supplier deliveries contracted.

Total US non-farm payroll employment increased by 223,000 in December. The unemployment rate edged down to 3.5%, with notable job gains occurring in leisure and hospitality, health care, construction, and social assistance. Average hourly earnings rose by 0.3%.

6 February

In November, retail trade increased by 0.8% in the euro area and 0.9% in the EU, compared with October. When compared year-on-year with November 2021, retail sales decreased by 2.8% in the euro area and 2.4% in the EU.

10 February

UK monthly GDP grew 0.1% in November, following growth of 0.5% in October 2022. Monthly GDP is now estimated to be 0.3% below its pre-Covid-19 levels of February 2020.

14 February

GDP increased by 0.3% in both the euro area and the EU during Q3. These increases follow a rise in Q2 of 0.9% in the euro area and 0.7% in the EU. Ireland recorded the highest Member State GDP rise in Q3, up 2.3%.

The UK unemployment rate for September to November 2022 increased by 0.2% to 3.7%. Average regular pay increased by 6.4%, although there was a split between the private (+7.2%) and public (+3.3%) sectors.

US inflation fell 0.1% in December, while the annual increase stood at 6.5%, the smallest 12-month increase since October 2021.

15 February

Annual UK inflation rose by 10.5% in the 12 months to December, down from 10.7% in November. There were downward contributions from transport (particularly motor fuels), clothing and footwear, and recreation and culture.

US retail sales were down 1.1% in December. However, they were up 6.0% compared with December 2021, and overall for the 12 months of 2022 were up 9.2% from 2021.

17 February

UK retail sales fell by 1.0% in December 2022, following a fall of 0.5% in November. Non-food store sales volumes fell by 2.1% over the month. Retailers cited consumers cutting back on spending because of increased prices and affordability concerns.

23 February

EU annual inflation was 10.4% in December, down from 11.1% in November. Annual inflation fell in twenty-two Member States, remained stable in two and rose in three.

US GDP increased at an annual rate of 2.9% in Q4 2022, according to the advance estimate. This follows an increase of 3.2% in Q3. The increase in Q4 primarily reflected increases in inventory investment and consumer spending.

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